What to budget for snow this winter
Budget season is September and October, and most numbers get set from what last winter cost. Here is why that is the one year not to use, with the station records behind it.
A commercial seasonal snow contract in northern New Jersey runs $10,000 to $30,000for the winter, and we do not take work below about $5,000 a season. The number to budget against is not an average winter, because nobody gets one. Measured against each county's own long-run weather station average, 2024-25 came in 22% to 91% above average across the five counties we cover, and the two winters before it ran well below it. At a two inch trigger these counties average roughly 5.3 to 7.1 plowable events a season, and individual seasons have run from 0 to 17. That spread is what a seasonal contract is for: it moves the weather risk off your budget and onto ours.
The three winters everyone remembers
Each county against its own station average. The pattern is the problem: two quiet winters, then a heavy one. A number carried over from the quiet pair was short last year, and one set from last winter alone reads high for this one. Neither is the record; both are memory.
| County | Long-run average | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | Last vs average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sussex * | 35.8" (60 seasons) | 6" | 27.3" | 54.7" | +53% |
| Passaic | 28.7" (30 seasons) | 6" | 27.3" | 54.7" | +91% |
| Bergen | 30.4" (36 seasons) | 12.2" | 13.6" | 54.6" | +80% |
| Morris | 18.8" (33 seasons) | 13.9" | 9.6" | 27.1" | +44% |
| Warren | 35.5" (14 seasons) | 21.9" | 24" | 43.3" | +22% |
* Sussex: the county's own station record ends before these seasons, so the recent years come from Charlotteburg Reservoir (adjacent highlands). The long-run average is that county's own record.
How many times a plow actually comes out
Inches are how winters get described. Events are how they get billed. At a two inch trigger, this is what the records say about the number of times a season a property in each county needs service, and how far individual seasons have swung from it.
| County | Average events | Quietest season | Heaviest season | Seasons on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sussex | 7.1 | 1 | 16 | 67 |
| Passaic | 6.7 | 1 | 15 | 104 |
| Bergen | 5.4 | 0 | 14 | 155 |
| Morris | 5.3 | 0 | 17 | 55 |
| Warren | 5.7 | 2 | 11 | 11 |
Warren's record is the short one here, so treat its average as thinner than the others rather than wrong. Full counts at every trigger depth are on the snowfall history page.
What this means for the number you write down
The gap between the quietest and heaviest season in that table is the entire argument about contract type. If you pay per event, your winter cost multiplies by that gap and you find out in March. If you take a seasonal number, it is fixed in September and the contractor absorbs the swing. That is not a sales line, it is the same spread priced from two directions.
It is also why we publish this. A proposal that arrives with no weather context behind it is a number you have to take on faith. See how a seasonal price gets built, what a service report looks like, or, if you run a formal process, our RFP and bid page.
Where the numbers come from
NOAA GHCN-Daily records from the nearest long-record station to each county: Sussex, Sussex 1 NW (NWS COOP, records to 1893); Passaic, Charlotteburg Reservoir (NWS COOP); Bergen, Newark Liberty Intl (nearest long-record station); Morris, Boonton (NWS COOP); Warren, Hackettstown (CoCoRaHS observer). Seasonal averages use each station's own full record, and the season count is shown beside every average because a fourteen season average and a hundred and fifty season average are not the same kind of number. Event counts are from the same daily records at a two inch trigger. This is the same data our seasonal pricing is built from.
How much should I budget for snow removal in northern New Jersey?
A commercial seasonal contract in our area runs $10,000 to $30,000 for the winter, and we do not take work below about $5,000 a season. Where a property lands in that range is decided by how the lot actually plows, the walkway scope, the trigger depth and the clear-by time, not by square footage alone. What the weather records add is the size of the risk you are budgeting against: at a two inch trigger the counties we cover average roughly 5.3 to 7.1 plowable events a season, and individual seasons have run from 0 to 17.
Was last winter worse than normal?
Yes, and by a lot. Measured against each county's own long-run station average, 2024-25 came in 22% to 91% above average across the counties we cover. The two winters before it ran well below. So a budget set from what you actually paid the last year or two is set from an unusually quiet run followed by an unusually heavy one. That is the spread a seasonal contract exists to absorb, and it is why we build a number from the snowfall record rather than from last winter's invoice.
Should I take a seasonal contract or pay per event?
It depends on who you want holding the weather risk. A seasonal number is fixed in September and does not move if February is brutal, so the contractor carries the spread. Per event costs less in a quiet winter and more in a heavy one, so you carry it. Neither is a trick. The records on this page are the honest way to see how wide that spread actually is before choosing.
Where do these numbers come from?
NOAA GHCN-Daily records from the nearest long-record weather station to each county, the same records our seasonal pricing is built from. Station names, the number of seasons behind each average, and the one county whose recent years come from a neighbouring station are all named on this page rather than averaged away.
Get a number you can put in the budget
Tell us about the property and we will put a seasonal figure against it, built from the same records on this page.